InvestoryInvestory

Economic Indicators

April 2026

Last updated: 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z

Next Event

D--13

FOMC Minutes (March 17-18 Meeting)

Rate Outlook

92%Hold
8%Cut

CPI Trend

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Employment
Inflation
Fed
GDP
Other
OtherWed, Apr 1Published

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Actual: 52.7Expected: 51.5Previous: 52.4Beat
Market Reaction: Dollar strengthened, 10-year Treasury yields rose. Prices Paid surge to 78.3 heightened inflation concerns alongside oil rally. Manufacturing expansion continues despite rising cost pressures.
Analysis: Beat expectations (51.5) with 52.7, maintaining expansion for three consecutive months. However, Prices Paid jumped from 70.5 to 78.3, confirming that March oil surge is flowing through to manufacturing costs. While growth remains positive, inflation re-acceleration concerns further diminish Fed rate cut expectations. Manufacturing portfolios should watch for margin pressure on vulnerable companies.
OtherWed, Apr 1Published

Retail Sales (February data)

Actual: +0.6% MoMExpected: +0.3% MoMPrevious: -0.2% MoM (January)Beat
Market Reaction: Consumer discretionary stocks gained. Department stores (+3%), health/personal care (+2.3%) led strength. Overall market gains limited by oil price concerns.
Analysis: Beat expectations with +0.6% vs +0.3% forecast, confirming consumer resilience despite February employment shock (-92K). Strongest performance in seven months shows spending durability. However, March oil surge will likely constrain future consumer spending power. Maintain consumer stock allocation but approach energy-sensitive sectors cautiously.
EmploymentFri, Apr 3Published

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Actual: +178KExpected: +100K to +150KPrevious: -92KBeat
Market Reaction: S&P 500, Nasdaq declined despite strong jobs. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.36%. Strong employment overshadowed by Iran war and $111 oil concerns. Good Friday shortened trading.
Analysis: Full recovery from February shock (-92K) with +178K, reaffirming labor market resilience. Unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3% but remains healthy. Strong employment reduces Fed rate cut pressure while facing dual headwinds of Iran war and oil surge. Job market strength supports consumer-related stocks, but inflation concerns weigh on rate-sensitive sectors.
FedWed, Apr 8Upcoming

FOMC Minutes (March 17-18 Meeting)

Expected: Details behind Powell's hawkish stancePrevious: March meeting — Hold (3.50-3.75%), 11-1 vote

Watch Points

  • Context for Powell's 'inflation not coming down as expected' remark
  • Which members shifted dot plot projections toward fewer cuts
  • Committee views on Iran war/oil inflation impact
  • Assessment of employment slowdown (-92K)
InflationFri, Apr 10Upcoming

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Expected: 2.5-2.6% YoY (headline)Previous: 2.4% YoY (headline), 2.5% YoY (core)

Watch Points

  • First month to capture March oil price surge ($112) in energy CPI
  • Whether core CPI continues declining from 2.5%
  • Shelter cost deceleration pace is key
  • PPI +0.7% consumer pass-through
InflationTue, Apr 14Upcoming

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Expected: +0.4-0.5% MoMPrevious: +0.7% MoM, 3.4% YoY

Watch Points

  • March energy price surge fully reflected in PPI
  • Another above-expected reading would confirm inflation re-acceleration
  • Tariff impacts on goods pricing persistence
FedTue, Apr 28 — Wed, Apr 29Upcoming

FOMC Meeting

Expected: HoldPrevious: Hold (3.50-3.75%)

Watch Points

  • Inflation outlook amid prolonged Iran war and $112 oil
  • Core PCE 2.7% below target vs rising energy inflation — conflicting signals
  • Dot plot update (if available)
  • Powell press conference tone — hawkish hold or dovish pivot
  • If employment weakness deepens, possible rate cut signaling
GDPWed, Apr 29Upcoming

GDP (Q1 2026 Advance Estimate)

Expected: +1.5-2.0%Previous: +2.4% (Q4 2025, final)

Watch Points

  • Q1 included employment shock (-92K), oil surge, and Iran war
  • Consumer spending slowdown reflection in GDP
  • Net exports possibly worsening from oil price surge
  • Reference Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker
InflationThu, Apr 30Upcoming

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

Expected: Core 2.7-2.8% YoYPrevious: Core 2.7% YoY, MoM +0.4%

Watch Points

  • The Fed's preferred inflation measure
  • $112 oil energy costs beginning to flow into March PCE
  • Core PCE bounce from 2.7% would eliminate rate cut expectations
  • RSMus 'calm before the storm' analysis — energy pass-through is key
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Check this calendar at the start of each month and record market reactions around key releases to sharpen your investment decisions.

This calendar is based on typical US economic release patterns. Actual dates vary each month — always confirm with official schedules.