InvestoryInvestory

Economic Indicators

March 2026

Last updated: 2026-03-30T13:00:00.000Z

Next Event

D--23

Retail Sales

Rate Outlook

96%Hold
4%Cut

CPI Trend

Core 2.7% YoY, MoM +0.4% (Headline MoM +0.3%)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

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Employment
Inflation
Fed
Other
OtherMon, Mar 2Published

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Actual: 52.4Expected: 51.8Previous: 52.6Beat
Market Reaction: Markets reacted slightly positive to stronger-than-expected manufacturing expansion. However, the prices subindex surging to 70.5 raised inflation concerns.
Analysis: Manufacturing maintained expansion for a second straight month, which is encouraging. But the sharp jump in the prices subindex (59→70.5) reflects tariff and commodity cost pressures. For investors, this signals potential inflation re-acceleration, which could dampen rate cut expectations.
EmploymentFri, Mar 6Published

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Actual: -92KExpected: +59KPrevious: +130K (revised: +126K)Miss
Market Reaction: S&P 500 -1.33%, Nasdaq -1.59%, Dow -453pts. Unexpected job losses sparked recession fears. Selling accelerated alongside surging oil prices (WTI above $90).
Analysis: February payrolls fell -92K, dramatically missing the +59K estimate. Healthcare strikes (-28K) and federal government cuts (-10K) were partly to blame, but December was also revised to -17K. The 'low hire, low fire' labor market is showing cracks. This shifts the risk narrative from soft landing to slowdown. Consider increasing defensive and bond allocations.
InflationWed, Mar 11Published

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Actual: 2.4% YoY (MoM +0.3%)Expected: 2.4% YoYPrevious: 2.5% YoYIn Line
Market Reaction: Markets relieved by in-line reading. S&P 500 ticked higher. 10Y Treasury yield dipped slightly.
Analysis: Headline CPI at 2.4% and core CPI at 2.5% both matched estimates. Shelter (+0.2%) remained the largest contributor, and energy rose 0.6%. Overall, inflation continues its gradual cooling trend. This data supports the case for eventual rate cuts and is mildly positive for growth stocks.
FedTue, Mar 17 — Wed, Mar 18Published

FOMC Meeting

Actual: Hold (3.50-3.75%, 11-1 vote)Expected: HoldPrevious: Hold (3.50-3.75%)In Line
Market Reaction: S&P 500 -1.36%, Nasdaq -1.46%. Powell's hawkish remarks drove selloff. 10Y yield +5bp. Market repriced year-end rate cut expectations lower.
Analysis: The hold was expected, but Powell's comment that 'inflation isn't coming down as much as hoped' struck a hawkish tone. The dot plot median held at one cut in 2026, but individual projections shifted toward fewer cuts. Markets began pricing in zero further cuts this year. Rate-sensitive assets (growth stocks, REITs) face near-term headwinds. A watch-and-wait approach with adequate cash reserves is prudent.
InflationWed, Mar 18Published

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Actual: +0.7% MoM, 3.4% YoYExpected: +0.3% MoMPrevious: +0.4% MoM, 3.0% YoYBeat
Market Reaction: Released same day as FOMC, market impact was mixed. PPI strength reinforced inflation concerns alongside hawkish Fed messaging.
Analysis: PPI surged +0.7% MoM vs +0.3% expected. Both services (+0.5%) and goods (+1.1%) rose. The 3.4% YoY reading is the highest since February 2025. Rising energy costs and tariffs are flowing through to producer prices, creating potential pass-through to consumer prices ahead. Watch for inflation re-acceleration risk.
OtherWed, Apr 1Upcoming

Retail Sales

Expected: +0.3% MoMPrevious: -0.2% MoM (January)

Watch Points

  • February data release postponed to April 1
  • Consumer spending recovery signal
  • Impact of surging energy prices on discretionary spending
InflationFri, Mar 27Published

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

Actual: Core 2.7% YoY, MoM +0.4% (Headline MoM +0.3%)Expected: 3.1% YoY (core)Previous: 3.1% YoY (core, January)Miss
Market Reaction: Despite favorable PCE data, markets panicked on Iran war escalation. S&P -1.7%, Nasdaq -2.15%, Dow -793pts entering correction. Oil $112, VIX 31.05. The inflation cooling signal was completely overshadowed by geopolitical risk.
Analysis: Core PCE at 2.7% came in well below the 3.1% expectation, confirming the inflation deceleration trend and strengthening the case for Fed rate cuts. However, the same-day Iran war escalation pushed oil to $112 and VIX to 31, causing markets to completely ignore the positive PCE surprise. RSMus described this as 'the calm before the storm' — future energy price pass-through could reverse the inflation decline.

Monthly Summary

March saw economic data collide head-on with geopolitical risk. NFP shocked at -92K, confirming labor market weakness, while CPI (2.4%) and core PCE (2.7%) showed inflation cooling. But the FOMC struck a hawkish tone and PPI surged +0.7%, raising inflation re-acceleration fears. The month ended with dramatic war escalation: WTI oil breached $100 (Brent $112.57), an Iranian missile struck a Saudi US military base injuring troops, and Houthis joined the war by attacking Israel. G7 demanded Hormuz safe passage but CNBC warned 1-3 weeks is the economic tipping point. S&P 500 fell over 10% in Q1, Dow entered correction. Five straight weeks of losses.

Portfolio Review

Shifting toward defensives and bonds after the early-March NFP shock proved wise. Growth stocks briefly bounced on in-line CPI but sold off again after the hawkish FOMC. Month-end Iran panic hit high-valuation growth stocks hardest. Investors who raised cash and added energy sector exposure were best positioned defensively.

Next Month Preview

April brings March retail sales (4/1), March NFP (4/4), March CPI (4/10), and Q1 GDP advance estimate (4/30). With WTI at $100 and CNBC's '1-3 week tipping point' warning, April inflation data will see full energy price pass-through. Earnings season kicks off (TSLA 4/21). If Hormuz remains unresolved, stagflation risk (high inflation + low growth) emerges as a real threat. No FOMC meeting scheduled but an emergency statement isn't off the table.

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Check this calendar at the start of each month and record market reactions around key releases to sharpen your investment decisions.

This calendar is based on typical US economic release patterns. Actual dates vary each month — always confirm with official schedules.